Pathway 1 – Business as usual

In this pathway currently implemented measures and implementation approaches (governance) within the Common Agricultural Policy and the Water Framework Directive and its operative programmes such as the Rural Development Programme and the River Basin Management Plan will continue with marginal changes post 2020.

Pathway 2 – Ecosystem service approach

In these pathways, alternative designs of measures and measure combinations and alternative governance configurations will be performed to promote multiple ecosystem services from agricultural land uses and the management of streams in agricultural areas.

2a

This pathway involves establishing riparian zones (10 m), promoting contour ploughing and adjusting stream morphology.

2b

This pathway involves establishing riparian zones (20 m), promoting contour ploughing and adjusting stream morphology.

Pathway 3 – Improved wastewater treatment

In these pathways, more households will be connected to sewage plants.

3a

5% increase in number of connected households

3b

10% increase in number of connected households

3c

15% increase in number of connected households

NOTE: All pathways were calculated with climate change forcing data for the 2020s impact period (2011 to 2030). Forcing data from two models from the EURO-CORDEX ensemble were used to cover ensemble spread, both driven with the RCP8.5 scenario. The models used were WRF-IPSL-CM5A-MR and RCA4-CanESM2. Baseline results were calculated with the 2010s reference period (2001 to 2020). All climate change forcing data was bias-corrected to WATCH Forcing Data – ERA INTERIM (WFDEI) reanalysis forcing data.